All I have is sheer sympathy for the voters in North Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces. Poor souls were waiting for the good news of the fall of Killinochchi any time. (They were told it might happen even prior to elections! Ha Ha Ha – and most of them bought it without questioning!) Now all they got was a horrible kick below the belt – which might have made them cry with intense pain.
Now knowing well he got all he wanted; nothing would prevent Kurakkan boy from going ahead the temporarily halted price hikes with a sarcastic smile for the voters he had successfully fooled. It will start with gas.
Shell Gas Lanka limited will increase the price of a 12.5kg domestic cylinder by Rs.126 with effect from midnight today a company spokesman said –reported Daily Mirror. Accordingly the new price of a domestic cylinder will be Rs. 1863.
Whoever said ‘Modakamata Beheth Netha’ (There is no medicine for stupidity) was dead right. Majority of poor voters in North Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces learnt it the hard way.
A defeat is not a pleasant experience. For somebody directly involved in the campaign for the main opposition party, it becomes even more difficult. However, an analysis is essential as this is not the end. Realising our weaknesses is crucial for future success.
Before I get into details, let me tell this. What follows is my personal opinion. I write this as Ajith P. Perera, after removing all hats. I waited long enough so that the party has done its own postmortem and a reader might not take my analysis as official. Any overlaps are unintentional.
UNP performance at PC elections can hardly be called satisfactory. It failed to win even one electorate from any province. Certainly this cannot be the performance one anticipates from the main opposition party especially when the government is becoming increasingly unpopular.
There were slight improvements in the number of votes from 2004. (See figure above) In both provinces we increased our votes by 4% while UPFA lost a fair share. However, that was hardly adequate to bridge the gap. Numerically have improved our performance, but that should certainly not make us complacent.
No doubt, the results reflected the inherent weaknesses in the UNP campaign. There were strong communication failures. Government’s war madness gimmicks went unchallenged, and it seems the voting public bought them wholesale. Even ludicrous claims like “security forces will reach Kilinochchi prior to elections” were not seriously questioned by us. Creation of favorouble short term artificial economic conditions by government purely for election purposes went unexposed. Even our best attempts failed to convince the voters the impending dangers in continually rising Cost of Living and Government’s incapability to face the challenge.
A common argument is that the impact of inflation is truly faced only by fixed income earners while others (like farmers, for example) having options to meet it by increasing the prices of their own produce. A ‘rice crisis’ as we call elsewhere is not a ‘crisis’ but an opportunity for farmers in North Central provinces. This makes majority in these two provinces immune to the harsh economic conditions largely a creation of the economic mismanagement of the present government. The results would have been different if it were the Western province.
There is no question UNP fought in an extremely difficult wicket. In a fair election any contestant should be given equal opportunities. This was something difficult to expect from a Rajapakse.
From the beginning it was clear the government intended to shamelessly use the state resources in its political campaign. This was not limited to releasing ministry and government agency vehicles for the UPFA campaign. Every government agency published full colour advertisements one after the other in national dailies. There was even an eight page ‘SAARC’ supplement in Sinhala newspapers just two days prior to the election. The state channels Rupavahini and ITN gave virtually no publicity to opposition campaign – unless they found a point to attack us. They went even further misinterpreting news for the benefit of their political masters.
In addition to state media, government abused private media too through its henchmen. Publishing a flipped photograph of Ranjan Ramanayake in ‘Divamina’ of Upali Newspapers under the patronage of UPFA henchmen Nimal Welgama and having Bandula Padmakumara brining up the issue in his ‘Mul Pituwa’ surely was a planned gimmick. Sadly we too were not successful in encountering such election follies.
Most pathetic was Army-Navy and Police top brass becoming part f the UPFA campaign. We have passed the good old days of non-political military. The military spokesman had no shame in presenting inaccurate information on the status of the battlefield. Well, that is what he does every day but this time he did it solely for the elections. It is not a surprise in a country the Chief of Army publicly pronounces the political affiliations of his family.
Performance of the police was even more pathetic. In spite of the court order, IGP took no action to arrest Mervin Silva over his alleged attacks to Sirasa journalists – because that would have looked negative for the government at the election. In spite of that pending order Mervin Silva spoke at several election meetings in both provinces. It was a clear message to UPFA henchmen: Do any dirty thing to win the election; I will protect you.
The message was understood at the grassroots. Within few days Dr. Johnpulle’s house at Anuradhapura was torched. Vehicles of UNP candidates were burned. The supporters were assaulted.
I do not say that these were reasons why we, the UNP lost. The government might have still won in a hypothetical situation of them not using state property for the campaign or not unleashing that level of violence. However the margin would not have been that big.
This is my reading. I should not expect everyone to agree. Please feel free to present your own conclusions as comments below.
Sri Lanka’s Tamil Tiger rebels have carried out an air raid on a major naval base at Trincomalee on the east of the island, military officials said.
One plane dropped two bombs on the dockyard, injuring four sailors, the military said.
It is the first such aerial attack in more than a year.
Government forces have been pushing into rebel-held territory in the north of the island. The Tamil rebels are fighting for a separate state.
Military spokesman Brigadier Udaya Nanayakkara said air force jets had been scrambled to intercept the plane, but witnesses of the attack said they thought the rebel plane had escaped.
The Tamil Tigers have their own tiny air force of a few light planes smuggled into rebel-held territory in pieces and then reassembled.
Too tired after campaigning for about one week continuously. So this note is going to be brief. Just a quick update on yesterday night’s and today’s events and my thoughts.
Morale of our supporters has been high since the very beginning and we saw it reaching the climax yesterday night. It was a pleasure to see such an enormous support coming from the ground level. They genuinely believe we will win Sabaragamuwa province and Ranjan Ramanayake would be the next Chief Minister.
I do not try to predict the winners. Nobody can right now. It was a close fight. All I can say is whoever wins, the margin will be low.
Media and public property misuse by the government for their political advantage was highest in this election. Election laws are often broken but certainly not at this level.
Yesterday night, after the official conclusion of promotional activities, we saw Rupavahini playing a new ‘teledrama’ with third rate actors and actresses eulogizing the President. Don’t think that would have done any harm for our campaign. Many do not even know who these guys were. We have no animosity towards them and hope these ‘sereppu soopaas’ who sold their souls will get at least some bones from the kitchen of Temple Trees.
All opposition parties, not just UNP, stood at a disadvantage with this unprecedented misuse of state property. Unfortunately there was nobody to complain. Impossible to think the ‘Election Commission’ will ever be appointed under this regime.
The other drama staged yesterday night at Kalawana aimed illegal collection of Identity Cards especially from estate workers. Fortunately we heard this fast and could stop it at the right moment. All the kings’ men too could not achieve what they wanted always.
There were also intimidations. Estate workers of ‘hathere watte’ were threatened by SLFP thugs yesterday, so none of them went for polling. Finally we had to intervene. It was my team that brought all of them to the polling station. Otherwise the poor people would have lost their right of choice. Thus prevented another triumph for Mahinda Chinthana.
Sorry, Mr. Kurakkan, not everything in the world happens the way you want.
My duty is over now, and I think I can take a nice rest – till someone wakes me up with the results tomorrow early morning.
On a recent visit to Rupavahini, I noticed something weird. Apart from the central TV at reception, the others (notably the ones in the makeup division and canteen) were tuned to Sirasa TV. Oblivious to their own channel broadcasts, the employees of Rupavahini were blissfully glued to ‘Minisun Athara Minisek’ – a feature movie from Sirasa TV, with Gamini Fonseka playing the hero.
This speaks volumes about Sirasa TV’s popularity. Use of one’s product by the very employees of main competitor’s is a rare achievement. It is like Pepsi Cola selling more at the canteen of Coca Cola employees.
My congratulations go to Sirasa TV but let that not deviate me from my premonition, that Sirasa TV badly requires a re-strategizing exercise. It is almost overdue.
I am certain Sirasa TV understands the two key components of the Sri Lankan Sinhala audience of the day. I prefer calling them Children of ’56 and ’77 respectively. Not that everyone belongs to these two groups – but they drive all of us from time to time. A little overlap might be possible but mostly they are two distinct forces.
Group No.1: Children of ’56
This is a largely Sinhalese Buddhist (a small percentage of Sinhalese Catholics/Christians) group. They represent the key force that brought the current government into power. They are eager to send their children to Dhamma schools on Sundays. They resist Western culture or anything even vaguely associated with it. They also do not tolerate any deviations from what they term as ‘Sinhalese Buddhist culture’, in reality a Victorian product. One may also call them the ‘local Taliban’.
The post independent history of Lanka records several instances this force became prominent. The most recent one was in 2003, the aftermath of the death of Ven Soma thero, when it was powerful enough to make the reelect ion of an already unpopular government, of course under a different and more nationalistic leadership. This group might be smaller in size, but better not underestimate their strength.
Group No. 2: Children of ‘77
This group is larger in size and includes sections of lower middle class to semi-poor. (‘lower’ in social status, not necessarily income-wise) These have recently beaten poverty, mainly thanks to the socio economic developments in the post ’77 era by the UNP governments of J R Jayawardena and R Premadasa . Many of these families have someone working in Middle East or doing a small business of their own.
Their lives are uncomplicated and they look for simple entertainment. On an average basis their level of education may be lower compared to Group No 1. This is mainly an apolitical group but I am not surprised if majority still votes for the UNP.
Apart from these two groups, there are others but they are too diversified to be treated as a third cluster.
From its inception it was the second group that Sirasa TV focused. It was a wise decision. Both state channels focus on Group 1 so there was a huge vacuum for Sirasa TV to enter. Most of its popular programs (Sirasa Super star, Ran Depeya, Hina Ina, Kageda gee nada, Looks like, Sirasa Dancing Star, feature movies of popular actors/actresses) directly caters to children of 77 who like simple entertainment. Others have unsuccessfully tried capturing portion of its audience, but by default Sirasa TV still rules.
On the other hand, there is no way Sirasa TV can ignore the first group. It would be too risky, both financially and politically. With the anti-govt image it has already earned not catering to the nationalistic audience would be suicidal.
So what Sirasa TV does now it to insert special segments for children of ’56 into its schedule aimed mainly for children of ’77. That is how we hear monthly Buddhists sermons from temple trees, in the same channel that broadcasts bizarre dances of rural teenagers – one of the core items of criticism in such sermons!
No need to say, this antagonises both groups. Who wants to watch something not customized for them?
This largely explains the anti-Sirasa TV feelings of the day. A massive audience enjoys watching Sirasa TV but they are annoyed when some of its programs challenge their hardcoded value systems. The simple solutions of putting off the TV or changing channels are not available because they still want to watch it. (though they may not want to admit) This starts a special ‘love and hate’ relationship with the channel.
That is why I think Sirasa TV needs to re-strategize/re-brand. This is the time to start another Sinhalese channel. (Sorry, I am not fully aware of financials or spectrum issues. I know this can be costly, but no idea how costly) They can be like ‘Palamuveni Sevaya’ and ‘Deveni Sevaya’ of the good ole SLBC. The first had more serious stuff while the second was commercially oriented. It was the second channel most listened to, but still if anybody wanted they had an option of more ‘advanced’ or ‘patriotic’ content. Finally both groups were satisfied.
The danger of Sirasa TV not having a channel for less commercial serious stuff to cater children of 56 is them completely losing the credibility of the station. This, in fact, has already stared happening. That is what makes Sirasa TV the most hated TV channel. A little hostility is inevitable, but if that continues Sirasa TV needs to take it seriously. After all, even Mervin Silva is a prospective audience. There is no need to impose self barriers when expansion is still possible.
Anticipating free and fair elections under Kurakkan regime is akin to requesting feathers from turtles! (Can we ever forget that the man himself was once remanded for election violence and unauthorized bearing of firearms?)
The pre-election violence by the ruling party yesterday was adequate indication for their plans for the election day.
The UNP office housed at the residence of senior party member Dr. Raja Johnpulle in the Anuradhapura town has been set on fire by an unidentified gang yesterday night. Shooting had also taken place during the incident, police said.
With a miserable police force that serves only the needs of the ruling party and top politikkas; not the national interests, public in this country have only Gods to turn to. That too is questionable because just like the IGP Jayantha Wickramaratna God too so far maintaining a blind eye on Dr. Mervin Silva, in spite of the wishful thinking of Minister Maithripala Sirisena.
Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has warned President Mahinda Rajapaksa against playing around with the people’s voting rights, saying that he was in danger of suffering the same fate that befell Pakistan’s Pervez Musharraff.
“President Musharraf had to resign after he played with the people” Mr. Wickremesinghe told an election rally in Anuradhapura yesterday (Aug. 19th).
He said, “If President Mahinda Rajapaksa tries to play around with the people, they all will rise up against him. That people’s power cannot be stopped.”
The UNP leader urged people not to allow any element to rig votes at the August 23rd vote.
“Will the SAARC chairman allow vote rigging? Will the SAARC chairman use thugs against his own people? What has happened to those who had tried to tamper with the voting right of the people of South Asia?” he asked.
The leader of the Maldives announced recently that he would go for an all-party system, while Bangladesh has been forced to hold an election in November.
Similarly, Nepal’s King has lost his position after attempting to halt a vote, Mr. Wickremesinghe noted.
He urged the UPFA government not to use the heroic soldiers to seek votes.
“A vote for the alliance will not be a vote for the heroic soldiers. It is clearly a vote for robbery, corruption, family administration and for hunger. The alliance is trying to strengthen its family power as the people of the north central province suffer. It wants to gain power by any means for five more years and swindle public money… I should say that every vote for ‘betel leaf’ will be a vote for robbery.”
Speaking further, he said the province had around 40,000 families of soldiers, including those who have died in action.
“If you want to vote for the heroic soldiers, vote for the UNP and elect the heroic Janaka Perera as chief minister,” Mr. Wickremesinghe said.
Sri Lankan sprinter Susanthika Jayasinghe advanced to the semi-finals of the women’s 200 m event at the Beijing Olympics today (Aug. 19th).
Susanthika clocked 22.94 seconds to be placed third in the second heat of the second round, after Bahrain’s Al Gassra Roqaya (22.76 sec) and Hurtis Houairi Muriel of France (22.89 sec).
Earlier in the day, running in heat one of round one, Susanthika timed 23.04 sec. to secure second place.
Hundreds, if not thousands, of females possessing stupendous knowledge about his anatomy is certainly to be expected but what our local Archimedes had in between his ears was not common knowledge – even to them. Well, now they know.
One might sympathise him for his Photoshop knowledge – or rather the lack of it. True, one does not expect the Cabinet Ministers of Kurrakkan regime to or computer literate or show exemplary intelligence. (When gurrunnase himself is a big buffalo do we even have to talk about the golayaas?) But this is beating even Big Moose.
Please watch the video clip fully. Then have a look at the image below. (Which I reproduce with the courtesy of a fellow blogger – see original)
One does not have to be an Einstein to know:
1. Flipping photos is a child’s play in Photoshop (Given the child is not an offspring of a Cabinet Minister like Nimal Siripala De Silva!)
2. When you flip a photo everything in it (including the letters of a banner) flip sides
3. Letters in Sinhalese are normally not written from right to left. (Even the illiterates know this, so surely Miniser Nimala Siripala De Silva cannot use that excuse!)
4. Buttons of male shirts and t-shirts are always on right. (Unless of course in case of people like our Archimedes who might just wear anything on the bed, if wife turns up during the mid-play!)
Shame, Minister, Shame!
Never mind, thank you for the publicity you have given our campaign. We would have won Sabaragamuwa even without your able help, but you have increased our margin by acting so idiotically.
