Elections in East: Who will win?

Ampara, May 5

Election, election and election. Who will win? That is what people ask me these days.  As somebody who had worked at the grass root level, they think I have an answer. 

Firstly, I am not an astrologer. Secondly, we still do not have reliable pool results to trust. Thirdly and most importantly, this election is different from any other lection we have seen since the independence.

As I said before, violence and malpractices are key ingredients in any Sri Lankan election. One party cuts the decorations of another and as a return a village party office is attacked. Perhaps one or two are killed. Once in a while, somebody already dead for six months or who is supposed to be in Dubai exercises his/her vote. That is not mass scale rigging.

The difference, this time, is the level. This is THE FIRST, I repeat THE FIRST time an armed terrorist group fight an election – with full endorsement of the ruling party – as a contestant.

Yes, in 1988 Presidential elections, JVP, then a terrorist group intimidated voters in South. In 2005 Presidential elections LTTE did the same in North. Still both these times, the violators were not a party contesting. So they had no direct interest of the results. Neither they had the full open support of the ruling party. Imagine what would have happened if they had an interest and had the support of the government.

That is why we should take Pillayan seriously. He is not just a terrorist. He is a LICENCED TERRORIST. Licensed to carry guns; intimidate voters; rig polls and even kill.

If not for rigging, it would have been easier to predict the result. The overwhelming support we see at ground level show a clear victory for UNP/SLMC alliance. I do not say because I am biased. This is what anybody sees in East today.

Few days back we saw in ‘Daily Mirror’ how warmly Rauf Hakeem was greeted by the old ladies in Batticaloa. Did anyone ever see anybody hugging Pillayan?

Okay, with my politician’s hat out let me try to do an unbiased prediction. This is based on my own firsthand experience in Ampara district and information I gather from my friends in the other two districts. I take the possibility of rigging into account (it will happen) but we assume the level of rigging might not be adequate to prevent UNP/SLMC victory.

Let me start with Ampara. It elects 14 members, or 40% of the total in Eastern province.

As of today, UNP/SLMC will win Ampara district. Muslim and Sinhala votes will be predominantly for us, while we are not too sure about Tamil votes and what influence Pillayan have no them. I would say we get 8 seats, Pillayan 5 seats and JVP 1.

Then Trinco, which has 10 seats. There too the situation is favorable for us. A conservative prediction will be 5 seats for UNP/SLMC, 4 for Pillayan and 1 for JVP.

The only unpredictable district is Batti. Any rational thinking individual will see a clear UNP/SMC win because even in 2005 Nov we got nearly 80% of votes in the district. The difference is the level of rigging. Pillayan’s gunmen can easily intimidate the voters in areas outside town. This is their stronghold. So they can to some extent influence the outcome. But even without Batti we have a 4 seat lead.  Even the worst case scenario in 11 seat Batti is not adequate to set off that. On the other hand I would not be surprised if we win Batti with a huge margin. That is what maths say.

I remain optimistic. Rauf is like a magnet. How he attracts people are unbelievable. A first class orator, in both Tamil and Sinhala, he knows how to talk to the people. I have seen the enthusiasm. Difficult to think people will let him down.

It will not be easy fight by any means. Pillayan’s terrorist forces fully backed by the Kurrakkan boy will try their best to rig the pools. But believe me, DEMOCRACY is going to win on May tenth.